House Prices Increase Again Wednesday, 1st July 2009

The latest news from NATIONWIDE regarding the cost of buying a house has now been publshed and it makes interesting reading.

House prices increased by 0.9% in June, raising the average price to £156,442, according to the latest Nationwide index.

The three month rate of change turned positive for the first time since December 2007 and the annual rate of change has improved to -9.3% from -11.3% in May the latest statistics also show.

“If the pattern of price movements seen in the first half of the year is repeated over the second half, then prices could show only a small single digit fall for 2009 as a whole. This would represent a stark shift from trends seen at the turn of the year, when most indicators were pointing to a repeat of the large declines seen in 2008, Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s chief economist, said. “House prices have now risen in three of the last four months, suggesting that the improvement that began to show up in March represents more than just statistical noise. What is unusual about the recent trend reversal, however, is that it has taken place against a background of transactions activity that is still very low by historical standards. “Although it has risen from the all-time record low reached in November 2008, the industry-wide number of mortgages approved for house purchases is still 55% below its long-run average and 33% below the trough reached in the 1990s downturn. Normally, such a low level of house purchases would be associated with falling house prices.“Alongside the low level of mortgage approvals, however, there continues to be a relentless drop in the stock of property available for sale, as potential sellers and builders have responded to depressed demand conditions by reducing the supply of property coming onto the market. As a result, prices have been able to stabilise even in the face of very low demand. “On balance, the stabilisation of house prices is a welcome surprise that did not seem likely at the beginning of the year. However, there are still considerable headwinds facing the demand side and until we see a more robust recovery in house purchase activity, it is too early to be confident about a full-scale recovery of prices.”